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2006 Draft Analysis - One Year Later

This is a subjective analysis of the 2006 CIBL draft. While it is not possible to fully judge the success and failure of draft picks for several years, it's an interesting exercise to look back one year and analyze what currently look like good picks.

The best picks by each round are analyzed. The "not so good" choices are identified only for the first three rounds, since everything after that is guesswork anyway.

The 2006 draft was the last one for long-time owner Larry Schilling, who passed away a few months later after a courageous battle with cancer. Rest in peace, Larry.

Click here to see all of the draft picks.

Round one

The best picks:

Overall, this was a solid round from top to bottom.

The Sluggers went for the consensus number one pick in Felix Hernandez; while his results weren't as good as expected, he remains one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

Other pitchers taken in the early part of the first round who had nice seasons were Matt Cain (Commuters), Ervin Santana (Blues) and Justin Verlander (Scorpions). Francisco Liriano (Boulders) showed his enormous talent before getting hurt; he still has a bright future. Zach Duke (Bandits) didn't pitch as well in 2006, but will be back in Pittsburgh's rotation in '07.

The last five picks in round one yielded some good pitchers, with the real jewel being Jon Papelbon (Pinnipeds). Other good selections were Chien-Ming Wang (Drillers) and Anthony Reyes (Sluggers).

The hitters from the first round who had the best seasons were Prince Fielder (Commuters), Ryan Zimmerman (Beasts), Brian McCann (Anarchists), Conor Jackson (Phobics), Hanley Ramirez (Sidewinders) and Robinson Cano (Synthesis). The latter two were taken with the last picks of the round and performed better than expected in 2006.

The not so good picks:

Ryan Doumit (Drillers) at number seven was not a good pick, but the Drillers countered it with the fortuitous selection of Wang later in the round. Josh Towers (Skeeters) was just plain abysmal in '06; Jan would probably like to have a mulligan on that one! Aaron Fultz (Bandits) was a stretch in round one; although he can still get left-handers out, he struggled last year against righties. Dan Johnson (Vipers) struggled most of the season, perhaps due to eye problems; his core hitting skills were still solid with an excellent K/BB rate.

Round two

The best picks:

The Boulders were thrilled to see Edwin Encarnacion still available with the sixth pick; they've since flipped him to the Vipers for a premier closer, BJ Ryan --- very good payback for a second round choice! The HiSox did well in getting Scott Olsen.

After these two players there wasn't a whole lot of immediate value coming out of the round. The best picks were Matt Murton (Beasts), Aaron Hill (Force), Emil Brown (Vipers) and Chris Ray (Drillers).

The not so good picks:

The Scorpions had four picks in the round and attempted to rebuild their starting pitching staff, taking Brandon McCarthy, Hayden Penn, Kyle Davies and Dustin McGowan. None of the young hurlers distinguished themselves in 2006, but all will be given another chance in '07.

JD Closser (Bandits) didn't do much with the Rockies and has already been sent away. Colorado just can't seem to develop young catchers (remember Ben Petrick). Maybe Chris Iannetta will break that trend in 2007.

Speaking of catchers who didn't have much of a season, Jeff Mathis (Irish) lost the starting job early and wound up in Salt Lake before long. He'll get another chance this year.

Luis Terrero (Peanuts) is still in baseball, but who knows where --- he's a five-tool talent that has never put it together. Jason Vargas (Anarchists) had a bad year, but will get a fresh start this year with the Mets.

I could go on with players who either underachieved or got hurt, but you get the point --- it wasn't a real strong round.

Round three

The best picks:

I actually like the value that came out of this round more than the previous one. Any time you can get a serviceable starter after the second round, it should be considered a success. Paul Maholm (Bandits), Chuck James (Boulders) and Clay Hensley (Commuters) were all good picks.

Bobby Jenks (HiSox) surprisingly slipped to the third round. He wasn't a World Series hero this time around, but still had closer caliber numbers.

Mark Teahen (Kangaroos) was one of the big surprises of the second half of the season. The Kangs in essence gave up its '07 second round pick in order to gain an extra third rounder in '06; Teahen provides good value in the exchange.

Many of us said "Who?" when the Peanuts announced the selection of Ronny Paulino, but he turned in a decent season as the Pirates' main backstop.

The not so good picks:

The Drillers and Scorpions had two picks each and neither got a player worth protecting. The former took Rene Rivera and DJ Carrasco, while the latter blew good picks on Ronny Cedeno and Ambiorix Burgos.

Round four

The best picks:

The Sidewinders scored early with their selection of Josh Johnson and later added a decent bat in Ryan Garko. The surging Boulders added another promising young arm in Rich Hill. The Hegelians grabbed a possible future closer in Jonathan Broxton, but their later pick of Anthony Lerew didn't turn out as well. The Phobics picked southpaw Tom Gorzelanny, who showed potential.

The Scorpions grabbed a starting shortstop in Yuniesky Betancourt. Depending on which pundit you believe, he could be embarking on the Miguel Tejada career path or the Neifi Perez career path. Scorpion management is praying for something resembling the former rather than the latter.

Round five

The best picks:

Not too much value in this round. The best pick was the Peanuts' selection of Adam Wainwright. The Scorpions gambled on a couple of underachieving veterans in the latter part of the round, picking up Corey Patterson and Tony Armas, both of whom were worthy of being retained for another year. The Phobics grabbed a reliever with closer numbers in Fernando Rodney.

Round six

The best picks:

Not much to brag about here. The Hysteria picked Wes Helms, who put up the best numbers of his career in a part-time role. This round should be declared a hazardous waste dump. Round six has historically been a good spot for prospects, but Nelson Cruz (Scorpions - since traded to Beasts) is the only youngster projected to have a starting job somewhere in '07.

Round seven

The best picks:

Another round devoid of projectable prospects --- just a few serviceable relievers in Geoff Geary (Boulders), Jeremy Accardo (Scorpions), Joe Borowski (Skeeters) and Vinnie Chulk (Beasts). Role players John Rodriguez (Peanuts) and Jeff Cirillo (Anarchists) were protectable.

Round eight

The best picks:

Again, few good prospects taken. OK, Manny Delcarmen (Pinnipeds) has some potential as a reliever and Scott Hairston (Synthesis) will hit if he gets a chance to play AND stays healthy. The Kangaroos made a good pick in Jamey Carroll, who had a nice season as the Rockies occasional second baseman. Other good role players worthy of being given a repeat season with their respective teams include Jeff DaVanon (Kangaroos), Shane Victorino (Hegelians) and Bernie Williams (Buffalo Chips). There were also a couple of useful relievers in Jon Rauch (Scorpions) and Brian Bruney (Hysteria).

Also notable about this round is that it marked the final time that Jairo Garcia will be drafted in the CIBL. The A's right-hander shows up in this year's pool as Santiago Casilla.

Round nine

The best picks:

The steal of round nine was the Commuters' selection of catcher Josh Bard. Who saw this coming? Obviously none of us, or else he would have been picked a lot higher. The Buffalo Chips wound up protecting Pablo Ozuna, who put up strong numbers in a utility role in '06.

Round ten

The best picks:

Two decent players that return to their teams in 2007 came out of this round. The Kangaroos picked up veteran Russ Springer, who came back from the baseball dead to post nice numbers vs. RHB, and the Synthesis grabbed reliever Matt Capps with the last pick of the round.

Supplemental rounds

The best picks:

Just a year ago, useable players Tony Clark and Chris Shelton came out of the Supplemental round. No such luck this year. The Phobics are keeping Jeff Baker in hopes that he gets some playing time in Colorado and the Boulders retained Luke Hudson for his 15 mediocre starts.

Analysis by Bill Mitchell